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Hantavirus Reservoir Hosts Associated with Peridomestic Habitats in Argentina Conclusion According to our model the rates of temperature and precipitation changes observed between 19 may produce significant changes in the rodent distribution in an equivalent These results suggest that future changes in Patagonia climate may lower transmission risk through a reduction in the potential distribution of the rodent reservoir. If temperature and precipitation trends remain at current levels for 60 years or double in the future 30 years, the probability of the rodent presence and the associated total area of potential distribution would diminish throughout Patagonia the areas of potential distribution for colilargos would shift eastwards.

Results If changes in precipitation follow previous trends, the probability of the colilargo presence would fall in the HPS transmission zone of northern Patagonia. From the model probability of the rodent presence was calculated for each scenario. longicaudatus as a function of temperature and precipitation. We used a validated spatial distribution model of O. Methods Four scenarios of potential climate change were constructed using temperature and precipitation changes observed in Argentine Patagonia between 19: Scenario 1 assumed no change in precipitation but a temperature trend as observed scenario 2 assumed no changes in temperature but a precipitation trend as observed Scenario 3 included changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed Scenario 4 assumed changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed but doubled. We explore how the potential distribution of the hantavirus reservoir would change under different climate change scenarios based on the observed trends. In past decades (1967–1998), trends of precipitation reduction and surface air temperature increase have been observed in western Patagonia. Hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine PatagoniaĬarbajo, Aníbal E Vera, Carolina González, Paula LMīackground Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (colilargo) is the rodent responsible for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in Argentine Patagonia.